By Jessica Chamba, EY Global Human Services Leader.

Ten scenarios that government policymakers should consider to meet the growing demand for care.

As one of the fastest-growing sectors, the care economy is crucial for a well-functioning society and a thriving economy.

By 2030, there should be an estimated 2.3 billion care recipients and 358 million care workers globally. The cost of care service provision is forecast to leap from 8.7% of global GDP in 2015 to 14.9% by 2030.[i]

But the current care model is not fit for purpose, due to fiscal constraints, fragmented policies, lack of coordination, talent shortages, and over-reliance on institutional care. On top of this, there’s the hidden burden of unpaid caregiving – disproportionately carried out by females – valued at around US$11 trillion or 9% of global GDP.[ii]

In our new point of view, we envision a better future for the care economy, by exploring 10 “what if” scenarios. What if…

1. Governments took a more integrated, longer-term approach to policymaking?
2. Governments could reduce care demand by prioritizing prevention and investing in health?
3. The elderly and vulnerable could more easily access support services?
4. What if everybody could get a minimum care quality to enhance outcomes affordably?
5. he elderly and vulnerable could maintain their independence and dignity in their own homes?
6. Care became more attractive to workers seeking purposeful, rewarding careers?
7. Technology and human-centered design transformed care, increasing productivity while preserving the human touch?
8. Informal care providers were recognized as generating economic and social value?
9. Governments could involve communities, volunteers and civil society organizations in the care economy?
10. Everyone accepted responsibility for caregiving, and gender inequality became a thing of the past?

A thriving care economy should drive better social and economic outcomes

By 2035, an estimated US$3.9 trillion (3% of global GDP) of public spending will be needed to provide universal long-term care services.[iii] This is beyond the means of most governments and calls for a radically different approach to funding, including innovative care financing, tax incentives for individuals and the private sector, and insurance and savings schemes for old age.

If governments can improve collaboration and instill a sense of shared accountability for addressing care economy challenges, better outcomes should follow. Government and public sector, investors, employers and third-sector organizations can all play their part.

A reformed care economy can transform the lives of those in need of care, help informal caregivers rebalance their lives, and enable women caregivers to maintain their careers. If governments get this right, we should see a virtuous cycle of improved quality of life for the elderly and vulnerable, innovative, technology-driven care models that transform productivity, and skilled, motivated and well-rewarded caregivers.

Read the full point of view

[i] “Care work and care jobs for the future of decent work,” ILO, 2018.

[ii] “Care Work and Care Jobs for the Future of Decent Work,” ILO, 2018.

[iii] De Henau, J. 2022.” Costs and benefits of investing in transformative care policy packages: A macrosimulation study in 82 countries,” ILO Working Paper 55 (Geneva, ILO).